• Heavy Rain/Flooding LA/TX

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Thu Sep 5 08:47:00 2024
    AWUS01 KWNH 051200
    FFGMPD
    LAZ000-TXZ000-051757-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0977
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    759 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2024

    Areas affected...southern Louisiana, far southeast Texas

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

    Valid 051157Z - 051757Z

    Summary...A gradual increase in flash flood potential should occur
    through the early afternoon.

    Discussion...A relatively focused band of convection extends along
    the south Louisiana coastline from south of Lake Charles to near
    Houma, with more scattered convection located just offshore over
    the far northern Gulf of Mexico. The convection was tied to a
    weak low centered just southeast of Galveston, with low-level
    confluence, 2.6+ inch PW values, abundant buoyancy (2000 J/kg
    MLCAPE - located mainly offshore), and weak steering flow aloft
    all supporting locally heavy rainfall with rates exceeding 2-3
    inch/hr at times. Over the past hour, most of the heavier rain
    rates were located south/southeast of Galveston and with slow
    northward-moving convection near Houma. Furthermore, storms near
    Houma are oriented a bit more favorably for training/repeating,
    potentially supporting extreme rain rates in that area.

    Over time, both models and observations suggest a gradual increase
    in convection over land areas. This increase will likely be tied
    to both northward trajectories of cells from the Gulf and inland
    development of stronger buoyancy - perhaps reaching the I-10/12
    corridor later this morning as insolation/heating increases. This
    should result in at least a few areas of excessive rainfall
    through the morning, with typical sensitive/low-lying and urban
    areas experiencing the greater flash flood threat through 18Z/1p
    CDT and probably beyond.

    Cook

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

    ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 30399080 30118938 29548893 29048909 28849033
    29279209 29129478 29229510 29939453 30369318

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