604
AXNT20 KNHC 261045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to
move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from the
Florida Big Bend southwestward to 20N94W then southward and
inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos. Strong to near gale-
force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the
front. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated that
northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico, and are expected
to begin across the waters near Veracruz by sunrise. These gale
conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this
morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold
front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon
evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region
through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine
conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the
front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure
settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up
with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03.5N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 04N43W and to 00.5N50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N
between 13W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.

A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend southwestward to
20N94W then southward and inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos.
Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the
front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front.
Area radars show fine lines of moderate showers along and ahead of
the front across the eastern Gulf and into Florida, with a few
isolated strong showers. Gulf buoys show seas have reached 10 ft
across NW and SW central portions, outside of the strongest winds.
Winds offshore of Tampico are likely 12-13 ft already. Ahead of
the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate
seas to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will sweep across the rest of
the basin through Mon evening with very rough seas expected to
quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Marine
conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front
moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure
settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward
Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along the
next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from
the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean waters.
Satellite imagery shows scattered shallow light showers extending
across the basin from south of Jamaica east and southeastward to
the Lesser Antilles. A broad high pressure ridge north of the
area supports fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to
near 8 ft off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north- central and
eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will slide SE and
weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin,
supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh
winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell
over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next
week, with seas lingering near 8 ft through early Wed. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean late today and begin to stall
from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong
northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing
to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed
night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across
the N Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1027 mb high is centered NE of Bermuda near 35N54W and extends a
broad ridge southwestward across the NW Bahamas, south Florida
and through the Straits of Florida. A 1011 mb low center of
located over central Georgia, with a strong cold front then
trailing southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. A tight
pressure gradient between the ridge and the low center supports
fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft north of
28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a cold front enters the
tropical Atlantic near 31N39W and continues southwestward to
28N50W and then as a stationary front to 31N63W. Moderate to
locally fresh E winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft in N swell are
found north of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate
to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas 7 to 10 ft
south of 25N and between the Bahamas and Africa. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas
prevail. A band of multilayer clouds associated with very strong
winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from
NE South America all the way to W Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the
NW forecast waters will continue through mid morning in advance of
a strong cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast
Florida this morning, accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW
Bahamas and S Florida Mon evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks
and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to
become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the
SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW to
N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon
through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to
dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the
western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central
Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)

562
AXNT20 KNHC 271041
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved
southeast of the basin and into the NW Caribbean overnight, and
extends from the NW Bahamas southwestward across central Cuba and
into south central Belize. 1039 mb high pressure across SW
Louisiana and SE Texas extends a ridge south and southeastward
behind the front, forcing strong northerly winds across the
entire basin, except across NW portions, where moderate N to NE
winds prevail. NW gales near Veracruz has diminished slightly
overnight, to around 35 kt, where seas are 16-18 ft, as confirmed
by overnight satellite altimeter data. Very rough seas of 12 ft
and higher prevail elsewhere S of 20N across most of the Bay of
Campeche, and near the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and
through the Yucatan Channel. Gales off of Veracruz are expected
to diminish to 25-30 kt by sunrise. Marine conditions will improve
from NW to SE across the basin today through Wed as the front
moves farther southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high
pressure settles across the northern Gulf.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong W Atlantic cold front extends
through 31N69W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and through
central Cuba. Behind the front, strong high pressure across the NW
Gulf of Mexico extends east and southeastward behind the front,
and is forcing strong NW to N winds and rough seas across the
Atlantic waters. Northerly gales have been occurring overnight near
and offshore NE Florida to the Cape Canaveral area over and east
of the Gulfstream, and are expected to diminish below gale-force
by sunrise. Seas in this area area are 10-13 ft in N swell moving
against the Gulfstream current. The front will move from near
31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then
become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the
SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. As this occurs, winds will
gradually diminish from NW to SE today and tonight. Moderate to
large NW swell generated behind the front will gradually move SE
of this area tonight through Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

Significant rainfall event: A cold front is entering the NW
Caribbean and forecast to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras
by late today into Wed. As the front becomes nearly stationary
over the NW Caribbean, the northerly winds behind it will
transport abundant tropical moisture into the Gulf of Honduras and
northern Honduras, where the onshore flow will favor the
development of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture
will remain in place across southern Mexico and northern Central
America supporting more shower and thunderstorm activity with
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, and localized amounts of 4 to
6 inches due to orographic effects. The heaviest rainfall is
expected in southern Mexico late tonight into Tue, and in northern
Guatemala and Belize Tue into early Wed, and well as in northern Honduras.

Please follow your local weather office for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 00N34W and to the coast of Brazil near
03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed
south of 06N and between 08W and 51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front extends has moved southeast of the basin and
into the NW Caribbean overnight, and extends from the NW Bahamas
southwestward across central Cuba and into south central Belize.
1039 mb high pressure across SW Louisiana and SE Texas extends a
ridge south and southeastward behind the front, forcing strong
northerly winds across the entire basin, except across NW
portions, where moderate N to NE winds prevail. Seas of 8 ft and
greater are generally S of a line from Cedar Key, Florida to
28N88W to near Tampico, Mexico. Recent buoy observations show seas
of 10-12 offshore of the Tampa bay area. Peak seas across
the basin of 15-18 ft are over the SW Gulf across and downwind of
gales off of Veracruz.

For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE
today through Wed as the front moves farther southeastward into
the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern
Gulf. The high will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure
develops in the north- central Gulf along the next cold front.
This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to
Veracruz by Fri evening and move SE of the basin Sat. Another
round of strong northerly winds will follow this front, with gale-
force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front has moved into the NW Caribbean overnight, extending
from central Cuba to south central Belize. A few clusters of
moderate showers are along the front. Strong northerly winds to 30
kt and rough seas are noted behind the front, as depicted by
overnight satellite scatterometer data. Seas of 10-12 ft are
currently across the Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, the remainder of
the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
over the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong easterly winds and
rough seas to 9 ft are found off Colombia. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north- central
and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight
seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
slide E-SE and weaken through Tue night and maintain a ridge N of
the Caribbean basin. This pattern will support fresh trades over
the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N
Atlantic waters through early Wed, while fresh winds offshore of
Colombia pulse to strong at night through Thu. Large E swell over
the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through Wed afternoon.
The cold front over the NW basin will move SE today and begin to
stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras this evening
through Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before
briefly diminishing to mostly fresh Wed morning, then increase to
fresh to strong Wed afternoon through Thu as stronger high
pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of Mexico. Mainly
moderate N winds and seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu
night through Fri night. Looking ahead, a new strong cold front
will move into the NW basin Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning
off NE Florida.

A strong cold front extends from 31N69W across the NW Bahamas and
into central Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along this
boundary. Fresh to near gale-force N winds and rough seas prevail
behind this boundary. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are
found ahead of the front to 60W and north of 28N. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that
extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 30N40W to the central
Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to
rough seas in a mix of E and N swell are found south of 25N and
east of 65W to 30W. A cold front is found SE of the central
Atlantic high, from 31N20W to 28N35W, with moderate to fresh winds
on both sides of the front.

In the far NE Atlantic, a strong low pressure off Ireland is
producing fresh to strong W winds and rough seas to the area north
of the Canary Islands and east of 25W. Northerly swell associated
with this feature is progressing southward, producing seas of
8-16 ft north of 25N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near
31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba this evening, then
become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the
SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will
meander across this area through Thu, when new high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic
and freshen winds behind the lingering front through Thu evening.
Looking ahead, another strong cold front will enter the western
waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen
rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)

142
AXNT20 KNHC 291033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends
from E Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary,
along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture
to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu,
with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern
Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+
inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast
of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in
the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today.
Please follow your local weather office for more details.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Another cold front is expected to
move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from
Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
An associated complex area of low pressure will rapidly deepen
Fri through Sat as it moves from the SE U.S. into the western
Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of
the Gulf basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz early Sat morning through midday Sat, and across the
eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening. Very large seas are expected
to build behind this front Fri night through Sun, reaching 15 to
18 ft across eastern portions of the basin and into the western
Florida coastal waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N14.5W and continues southwestward to 04.5N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 04.5N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 05N between
19W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
01.5S to 03N E of 14W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin in 48 hours.

1028 mb high pressure has drifted southeastward into the NW Gulf
tonight, centered offshore the Louisiana coast near 29N92.5W. A
surface trough in the central Gulf to near the Yucatan coast, and
a coastal trough in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the
basin, although any shower activity associated with this
convection is very light. The pressure gradient between the high,
the central Gulf trough, and a lingering front in the NW Caribbean
is producing mostly fresh N winds across the SE Gulf and into the
NW Caribbean this morning, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in
the Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE winds prevail across the Bay of
Campeche to the west of the coastal trough, with seas of 4 to 5
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh N winds across the SE Gulf will
gradually diminish through morning, as the front in the NW
Caribbean drifts southward. High pressure over the southern
Plains will shift east today ahead of a low pressure area moving
into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front
moving off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N
winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from
Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening.
The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the
western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves
southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air
across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near
Veracruz early Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat
through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the
basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to
east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE
into the northern Gulf following the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall
even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu.

A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the east coast of Cuba
to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua, where it has been drifting
southward overnight. Stratocumulus clouds and light showers cover
much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure
gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern
United States and Gulf of Mexico supports fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary.
Seas remain 7 to 10 ft across much of this area. In the south-
central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured
fresh to strong NE winds S of 13.5N to the coast of Colombia.
Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift
southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across
the NW Gulf of Mexico is starting to shift eastward. Fresh to
strong N winds will prevail across NW portions behind the front
through this evening, and force it slowly southward, reaching E
Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, where it will stall
and begin to weaken this evening through Fri. An unusually strong
cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move
southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to
western Panama Sat evening, from eastern Hispaniola to the NW
coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern
Puerto Rico to NW Colombia Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force
N winds are expected behind this front, generating very rough seas.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic front is stationary from 31N48W to 1014 mb low
pressure near 25N67W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered light to
moderate showers are evident along the front and E through NE of
the low. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are
occurring behind the boundary and south of 27N, except seas of 9
to 10 ft within 120 nm N of the front due to fresh winds. Moderate
to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-14 ft in NW swell are found north
of 27N and east of the front to 35W. North of the stalled front,
a reinforcing front is moving southeast of Bermuda, with fresh to
locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft
in W-NW swell occurring north of 30N and west of 65W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb
high pressure near 27N27W that extends west-southwestward to
Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to
locally very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of
24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads
across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well
north of the area. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are
found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
meander across this area through tonight. High pressure across
the Gulf of Mexico will build eastward into the W Atlantic and
freshen winds behind the lingering front today and tonight, and
nudge the front southward to near the Atlantic approach to the
Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the
western Atlantic waters Sat morning. Associated complex low
pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat
through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force
winds covering the local waters N of 23.5N, and the central
Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun
night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba
Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then
begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening.

$$
Stripling
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)