Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 21 - 27 November 2022

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Nov 28 0527 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
21 - 27 November 2022

Solar activity was at very low levels on 24, 26, and 27 Nov. Low
levels were reached on 21-23 and 25 Nov. Regions 3149 (N21, L=163,
class/area Dsi/170 on 22 Nov) and 3151 (S16, L=153, class/area
Cao/080 on 26 Nov) produced the majority of the C-class flares. The
largest was a C7/Sf at 22/0727 UTC from Region 3151. Associated with
the C7 flare was a CME first observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at
22/0800 UTC with the majority of the ejecta moving south of the
ecliptic with a possible glancing blow on 27 Nov. However, no
definitive signature could be seen in solar wind data.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal-moderate levels on 21-26 Nov. High levels occurred on 27 Nov,
with a peak flux of 2,400 pfu 27/1730 UTC, due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar
wind parameters began under the influence of a weak negative
polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 400-460 km/s on 21 Nov
followed by a decrease to nominal levels through late on 24 Nov.
Total field was initially around 11 nT, but decreased to under 5 nT
by late on 21 Nov. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to
active levels on 21 Nov and quiet levels on 22-23 Nov. Around
24/1800 UTC, total field and solar wind speed began to increase
again as a positive polarity CH HSS moved into geoeffective
position. Total field increased to a maximum of 15 nT at 24/2320 UTC
while solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 624 km/s at 26/1845
UTC. Positive polarity CH HSS influence continued through the end of
the period. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled
on 24 Nov and quiet to active levels on 25-27 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 November - 24 December 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. M-class
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares are possible on 29 Nov-12 Dec with
the return of old Regions 3140 (N25, L=326) and 3141 (N14, L=318).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be is expected to reach high levels on 28 Nov-07 Dec and
again on 24 Dec due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 28 Nov-03 Dec, 08-09 Dec, 17-18 Dec, and 22-24 Dec with G1
(Minor) storm levels expected on 28 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS
effects.


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)