SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP41
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 14, 2022
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux increased this week,
with sunspot numbers going from 111.4 to 114.9, and flux values from
149.2 to 155.3.

A feel-good exercise is to compare these numbers with a year ago,
when the sunspot reading in 2021 Propagation Forecast Bulletin
ARLP041 was only 30.7 and flux was 86.9. Solar Cycle 25 progression
is better than predicted.

October 9 saw a planetary A index reading of 25. On that day
Spaceweather.com warned that sunspot AR3112 had a delta-class
magnetic field with energy for strong solar flares.

The next day they posted movies of two flares, seen here, https://bit.ly/3T82fQS and here, https://bit.ly/3evItjp .

Predicted solar flux from USAF and NOAA shows values peaking during
the first week in November at 160.

The forecast shows flux values of 130, 120, 115 and 117 on October
14-17, 120 on October 18-20, 130 and 138 on October 21-22, 140 on
October 23-25, then 145, 145 and 150 on October 26-28, then 155, 155
and 152 on October 29-31, 160 on November 1-8, then 150, 140 and 135
on November 9-11, 130 on November 12-13, 135 on November 14, 138 on
November 15-17, and 140 on November 18-21.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 14, 8 on October 15-16,
5 on October 17-19, 12 on October 20-21, 5 on October 22-26, then
12, 15, 12 and 20 on October 27-30, 15 on October 31 through
November 1, then 18, 15 and 12 on November 2-4, 20 on November 5-6,
then 8 and 12 on November 7-8, then 5, 5, 12 and 10 on November
9-12, then 5 on November 13-15, 12 on November 16-17, and 5 on
November 18-22.

With increased solar activity and the progression into the Fall
season, I am seeing improved conditions on 10 meters, including more
beacon reports for my K7RA/B CW beacon on 28.2833 MHz.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH wrote:

"A greater number of active regions on the Sun, and therefore higher
total solar activity may be interesting for observers who are on the
lookout for remarkable phenomena. Moreover, it will certainly please
those radio amateurs who like to communicate on the shortest
shortwave bands, but that's where the easy part of the prediction
ends.

"Along with more flares, we also saw more CMEs. More accurately: too
many CMEs to make a forecast. The Sun was throwing several plasma
clouds into space nearly every day. Many of the CMEs were weak, some overlapping and heading in different directions. The disturbances
could occur at any time. Their irregular occurrence was observed
between October 3 and 10. Only after that did the Earth's
magnetosphere calm down.

"The CME of 4 October apparently did not hit the Earth. It was not
until the eruption in AR3112 on October 7 that it did. Therefore, we
observed a G1-class geomagnetic storm on October 9. In addition, we
observed eruptive activity that may have affected the Earth from the
smaller AR3116.

"All of this took place in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk,
and as the active regions approached the western limb of the solar
disk, the overall activity slowly decreased.

"Some CMEs took us by surprise and caused unexpected disturbances,
while other CMEs that should have hit Earth did not. We were pleased
to note a quiet development since October 11 with solar activity
still sufficiently high, contributed to improved shortwave
propagation.

"We now expect a gradual decrease in solar activity, but this will
be replaced by an increase later in October."

John, W2QL wrote:

"I decoded HC2FG on 6m FT8, 50.315.143 on 8 October 2022 at 1526
UTC, -18 dB.

"My equipment was a MFJ 6m Moxon in 3rd floor bedroom, SDRPlay
RSPDuo, QTH Fairfax, VA, FM18iu."

Jon Jones, N0JK wrote:

"Some odd F2 conditions October 8. First, 6 meters was open from the
southeast U.S. to Ecuador in the morning around 1500 UTC. I was on
6M portable with a 5 el Yagi, but nil in Kansas. To me it appeared
to be F2.

"10 meters was wide open to Europe. 9H1TT was 59+++ on SSB, as were
3 stations in Lebanon on 28.647 MHz. No luck with the OD5 stations,
but I worked EA7GAK, 9H1TT on SSB, and HA7TM on FT8 with 50 watts
and a whip antenna 'fixed mobile' from my portable site in northeast
Kansas.

"Solar Cycle 25 appears to be ramping up!

"Also worked IS0/OM2TW on SSB with 50 watts and vertical whip on
car."

Another of the many articles about the scary Carrington Event,
although this is the first time I have seen the claim that the flare
was so powerful, that telegraph messages could be sent through the
aurora! 1859 was long before the invention of radio, and longer
still before radio waves were observed propagating through the
aurora:

https://bit.ly/3CQEveO

Does anyone know how to get rid of that annoying video pop-up? I
cannot kill it.

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals . For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere .

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 6 through 12, 2022 were 139, 146, 137,
114, 134, 72, and 62, with a mean of 114.9. 10.7 cm flux was 155.7,
159.7, 157.2, 160.5, 163.2, 150.3, and 140.6, with a mean of 155.3.
Estimated planetary A indices were 18, 15, 12, 25, 10, 7, and 6,
with a mean of 13.3. Middle latitude A index was 14, 12, 10, 18, 8,
7, and 4, with a mean of 10.4.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP41
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 41 ARLP041

From Tad Cook, K7RA

Seattle, WA October 13, 2023
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP041
ARLP041 Propagation de K7RA

The numbers looked better during this reporting week, October 5-11.

Average daily sunspot numbers rose from 128.6 to 144.1, and average
solar flux from 155.6 to 159.1.

Average daily planetary A index went from 9.1 to 7.6, and average
middle latitude A index from 8.9 to 8.3.

For some reason the middle latitude numbers were not available from Fredericksburg, Virginia so we used the data from Boulder, Colorado.

Nine new sunspot groups emerged this week, with two on October 5,
one on October 7, two on October 8, one on October 9, another on
October 10, and two more on October 11.

HF conditions have been excellent, as the season turns deeper into
Autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. I really notice a difference on
10, 12 and 15 meters.

Predicted solar flux is 156 on October 13, 155 on October 14-16, 152
on October 17-18, then 150, 148, 150 and 152 on October 19-22, 152
on October 23-24, 158 on October 25, 160 on October 26-28, 158 on
October 29-30, 156 on October 31 through November 1, then 155, 156,
156, 158 and 160 on November 2-6, 158 on November 7-8, then 156 on
November 9-10, then 155, 154, 152 and 150 on November 11-14, 148 on
November 15-16, then 150, 152, 154 and 154 on November 17-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 5, 12, 10 and 8 on October
13-19, 5 on October 20-30, 15 and 12 on October 31 through November
1, 5 on November 2-5, then 10, 8, and 10 on November 6-8, 15 on
November 9-10, then 8 on November 11, and 5 on November 12 to the
end of the month.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere October 13-19, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Unlike most days in September, the Earth's geomagnetic activity has
finally dropped. Solar activity is high enough that there was a
significant improvement in shortwave propagation on a global scale.

"Around October 7, although there was still a possibility that Earth
would be hit by a CME that left the Sun on October 3, it did not
happen. Whereupon, especially on quiet days in the middle of this
week, the improvement was unmistakable.

"Two or three sunspot groups continue to be observed on the Sun.
They are able to produce up to moderate intensity flares. But the
area of the spots is not large, so we do not expect a CME based on
their magnetic configuration either.

"Thanks to helioseismology, we know of more extensive active regions
on the far side of the Sun. Therefore, it is safe to assume that
solar activity will be elevated for the rest of October. Which of
course brings with it possible increases in solar wind speeds with
higher particle concentrations, but this is not enough to predict a disturbance, only to vaguely state the possibility of one."

Dan, K7SS wrote:

"Just an FYI to those of us who may know anyone new to HF, and the
fact that 10m seems to be at a fantastic peak of conditions
recently, it would be a great shame for anyone who is new to HF to
miss this peak (or pre-peak?) with 10m so open during the daylight
and well into the evening darkness. Just recall the thrill of DX you
had early on.

"Would like to encourage everyone [in the club] to think about who
they might know that's pretty new and give a gentle prod to get them
on 10m. Even with a minimal antenna and power, the band is
supporting signals around the world right now. This may be our peak,
or perhaps this is a bellwether of things to come and may get even
better, but maybe not.

"If any tech licensee can get on 10m with even a minimal signal, it
will not disappoint. 28300 to 28500 kHz is theirs, and the
playground is full. And no place better to get the DX BUG than by
working some EU with low power and a small wire or vertical antenna.
NOW IS THE TIME.

"You don't want to have to explain in a year or two from now, that
they SHOULD have been on working DX and if not, may have to wait for
another cycle peak in 12-14 years.

"Personally, I'm having the time of my life with EU openings in the
morning around 10AM-12PM local. The THRILL IS BACK. 10m Lives."

An article about a 15,000 year history of extreme solar events:

https://bit.ly/3FctowT

Commercial space companies approach their first solar maximum:

https://bit.ly/46Cx6Ma

Korean records from the 14th to 19th centuries reveal sunspot cycle
history:

https://bit.ly/3ZUo2Af

Safely watch the eclipse with a disco ball. (I do not know if this
is actually safe):

https://bit.ly/3tBhgmz

Articles about the "Ring of Fire" solar eclipse:

https://wapo.st/3rNEHIY

https://bit.ly/3FeOQSc

An article about the Sun's polarity flip:

https://bit.ly/3LWZ7WF

Video about Sunspot AR3038:

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8oratl

Optimistic outlook on Aurora:

https://bit.ly/46tIOcb

Don't forget the eclipse event this Saturday, October 14:

https://www.hamsci.org/eclipse.

And at the last minute Thursday night, a new video from Dr. Tamitha
Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/iwp-M_i-TMw

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to
k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don't forget to tell us
which mode you were operating.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation . More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/ .

Also, check this article from September, 2002 QST:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 5 through 11, 2023 were 179, 138, 145,
149, 129, 120, and 149, with a mean of 144.1. 10.7 cm flux was
156.1, 155.3, 157.2, 157.1, 165.5, 164.4, and 158, with a mean of
159.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 16, 9, 5, 7, 8, 4, and 4,
with a mean of 7.6. Middle latitude A index was 17, 8, 4, 10, 9, 6,
and 4, with a mean of 8.3.
NNNN
/EX


--- MBSE BBS v1.0.8.4 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: American Radio Relay League (3:633/280.2@fidonet)