Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 03 - 09 November 2025

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Nov 10 0522 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
03 - 09 November 2025

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 4274 (N25,
L=275, class/area=Ekc/900 on 09 Nov) was the largest and most
complex, and responsible for the majority of major events during the
past week. On 03 Nov, high levels were observed due to five M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares that were produced by Region 4274. Two
flares had associated CMEs that were identified as containing
potentially Earth-directed components, an M1.6 (R1) at 03/0925 UTC
and an M5.0 (R2)at 03/1011 UTC. Arrival of the CMEs at Earth were
estimated over 06-07 Nov. High activity levels continued on 04 Nov,
with the high flare being an X1.8/1b (R3-Strong) flare at 04/1751
UTC from Region 4274. Associated with the flare was a Tenflare and
Type IV radio sweep. Region 4276 (S17, L=240, class/area=Dai/180 on
07 Nov) also produced an X-class flare (R3) with an X1.1 flare at
04/2201 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and CME. Analysis
of the ejecta from these events suggested potential to affect Earth
over 06-07 Nov. High solar activity was again observed on 05 Nov
following an M 7.4/2N (R2) flare at 05/1119 UTC and an M8.6/2B (R2)
flare at 05/2207 UTC from Region 4274. Tenflares and CMEs were
associated with both events. Arrival at Earth was estimated over
07-08 Nov. Moderate levels were observed on 06-07 Nov due to an M1.1
(R1) flare at 06/0431 UTC from Region 4276 and an M1.7/1n (R1) at
07/0716 UTC flare from Region 4274. Associated with the M1.7 was a
Type II (est 1,169 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep alongside a CME
that was likely to propogate off of the Sun-Earth line. Low solar
activity was observed on 08 Nov. Finally, on 09 Nov, Region 4274
produced an X1.7 (R3) flare at 09/0735 UTC. A complicated CME
signature was observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery. Analysis
and modelling of the event suggested potential for arrival at Earth
over 11-12 Nov.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit between 03-09
Nov.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 03-05 Nov and at moderate levels on 06-09 Nov. The
maximum flux of the greater than 2 MeV electrons measured by GOES-19
satellite during the week was 2,440 pfu at 04/1805 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was between quiet to G3 (Strong)
geomagnetic storm levels. Active conditions on 03 Nov were observed
due to weak influence from a CME that left the Sun on 31 Oct.
Unsettled conditions were observed on 04 Oct due to positive
polarity coronal hole influence. G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm
conditions late on 05 Nov and G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm
conditions early on 06 Nov resulted from the onset of a CME that
left the Sun on 03 Nov. G1 (Minor) storm levels were observed late
on 06 Nov and in to 07 Nov as more CMEs that left the Sun over 03-04
Nov passed by Earth. G2 conditions were again observed on 08 Nov due
to the passage of a CME that left the Sun on 04 Nov. Only quiet to
unsettled condtions were observed on 09 Nov.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 November - 06 December 2025

Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-Minor), with a
chance for high (R2-R3/Moderate-Strong), over 10-18 Nov, primarily
due to the flare potential from Regions 4274 and 4276. The remainder
of the outlook period is likely to be at low levels, with a chance
for moderate activity.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels over 10-13 Nov following a combination
of CME and coronal hole influence. High levels are again likely on
27 Nov-02 Dec due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity
CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at
normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G2
(Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are
likely on 11 Nov due to anticipated influence from both a negative
polarity coronal hole and a CME that left the Sun 07 Nov. G2
conditions are likely on 11-12 Nov due to anticipated influence from
CMEs that left the Sun on 09 Nov. Unsettled conditions are likely
over 13 Nov as CME influence wanes. Recurrent coronal hole influence
is likely to cause G1 conditions over 25-27 Nov and 02-04 Dec;
active condition on 20 Nov, 24 Nov, 29-30 Nov, and 05 Dec; unsettled
conditions on 16 Nov, 21 Nov, 28 Nov, 01 Dec, and 06 Dec. The
remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet
levels.


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