Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 15 - 21 August 2022

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Aug 22 0656 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 - 21 August 2022

Solar activity was reached moderate levels on 15 Aug and 17-19 Aug
with High levels observed on 16 Aug mostly due to M-class flaring
from Region 3078 (S23, L=030, class/area Dao/270 on 16 Aug). This
region was responsible for 57 C-class flares and 10 M-class flares.
The largest was an M5 at 16/0758 UTC. Multiple CMEs were observed
during the period with Earth-directed components. These included a
partial-halo CME at 14/1325 UTC off the W limb associated with a LDE
C2 flare at 14/1235 UTC from Region 3076 (N16,l=061, class/area
Dao/170 on 12 Aug), a CME at 15/0516 UTC off the SW limb associated
with a filament eruption centered near S21W43 at 15/0400 UTC, a CME
at 17/1430 UTC off the SW limb associated with an M2 flare at
17/1345 UTC from Region 3078, a CME at 18/2256 UTC off the SW limb
associated with C4 flare from Region 3078, and a CME at 19/0500 UTC
off the SW limb associated with an M1/Sn flare at 19/0444 UTC from
Region 3078. Analysis of these CMEs appeared to be combined arrivals
early on 18 Aug, late on 19 Aug, and early on 22 Aug.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 18 Aug and reached high levels on 15-17 and 19-21
Aug. The peak flux was 7,580 pfu observed at 15/1520 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm
levels. The period began under the waning effects of a positive
polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed decreased from near 500 km/s to
360 km/s by 16/0355 UTC. At 16/1155 UTC a solar sector boundary
crossing was observed changing polarity from positive to negative.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 15-16 Aug. On 17 Aug at
0214 UTC, a weak shock was observed at the DSCVR spacecraft. Total
field increased from 8 nT to 18 nT while solar wind speed increased
from 385 km/s to 434 km/s. A subsequent geomagnetic sudden impulse
was observed at 17/0303 UTC (23 nT at HAD magnetometer). Total field
remained in the 10-18 nT range through 18/1510 UTC. Solar wind speed
continued to increase to near 570-600 km/s. This was likely the
arrival of the 14 Aug CME followed by the onset of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Another shock was observed at 19/1702 UTC with a
total field increase from 5 nT to 12 nT as solar wind speed
increased from 540 km/s to 630 km/s. A sudden impulse was observed
at 20/1812 UTC (8 nT at SIT magnetometer). Solar wind peaked around
676 km/s at 19/2048 and remained in the 470 km/s to 600 km/s range
through the end of the period. The geomagnetic field responded with
quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 17 Aug, quiet to G1 (Minor)
storm levels on 18-19 Aug, and quiet to active levels on 20-21 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
22 August - 17 September 2022

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 22 Aug - 02 Sep
and 17 Sep. An increased chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
levels is likely on 03-16 Sep with the return of Region 3078.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 22-26 Aug, 28 Aug - 01 Sep, 04-12
Sep, and again on 14-17 Sep due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled to
active levels on 22-24 Aug, 27-30 Aug, 03-10 Sep, 13-17 Sep with G1
(Minor) storm conditions likely on 22 Aug, 03-05 Sep, and G2
(Moderate) levels likely on 03-04 Sep due to recurrent CH HSSs.
There is a possibility of a glancing blow from the 18-19 Aug CMEs
arriving on 22 Aug.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)