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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 04 - 10 August 202

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Aug 12 03:00:04 2025
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 04 - 10 August 2025

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2025 Aug 11 0200 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    04 - 10 August 2025

    Solar activity was at moderate levels throughout the week. Region
    4168 (N05, L=103, class/area=Eki/350 on 08 Aug) produced a total of
    fourteen M-class flares (R1-Minor events) this period, the largest
    being an M4.4/1b at 05/1553 UTC. The M4.4 flare was accompanied by
    Type-II (865 km/s) and IV radio sweeps, a 200 sfu Tenflare, and a
    CME first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at around 05/1700
    UTC. This CME likely arrived at Earth on 08 Aug embedded with
    positive polarity CH HSS influence. No other Earth-directed CMEs
    resulted from the activity observed over 04-10 Aug.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    normal to moderate levels over 04-09 Aug, and increased to high
    levels on 10 Aug.

    Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 04-05 Aug in
    response to waning negative polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet
    conditions and a nominal solar wind environment prevailed over 06-07
    Aug. Periods of G1 (Minor) storming were observed on 08 Aug due to
    the onset of CIR and positive polarity CH HSS influence, and likely
    the embedded 05 Aug CME. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming
    were observed on 09 Aug due to continued positive polarity CH HSS
    influence. Unsettled to active levels were observed over 10 Aug as
    CH HSS influence weakened slightly.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    11 August - 06 September 2025

    Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with
    M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate events) activity likely over 11
    Aug-06 Sep.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring
    significant flare activity.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to reach high levels on 11-17, 21-22. 27-28 Aug, and on 06
    Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout
    the remainder of the period.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 11
    Aug due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. Periods of G1
    (Minor) storming are likely on 18-20 Aug, with periods of active
    conditions likely on 22 Aug, due to negative polarity CH HSS
    influence. Active conditions are likely again on 28 Aug in response
    to anticipated negative polarity CH HSS influence. Periods of G2
    (Moderate) storming are likely on 05 Sep, with active levels likely
    on 04 and 06 Sep, due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)