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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 27 January - 02 Fe

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Feb 4 05:00:06 2025
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 27 January - 02 February 2025

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2025 Feb 03 0137 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    27 January - 02 February 2025

    Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels (R2-Moderate).
    Minor (R1-Minor) levels were observed on 27-29 Jan, 31 Jan and 01-02
    Feb. Moderate (R2-Moderate) levels were observed on 31 Jan and 02
    Feb. Region 3976 (N13, L=001, class/area Ekc/260 on 02 Feb) produced
    31 C-class flares and 2 M-class flares, the largest an M2.6 at
    27/0812 UTC. Region 3977 (N19, L=002, class/area Cao/120 on 02 Feb
    produced 10 C-class flares and 6 M-class flares, the largest an M5.1
    at 02/1404 UTC.

    Region 3978 (N11, L=350, class/area Dai/200 on 02 Feb) produced 5
    C-class flares and 1 M-class flare, the largest an M6.7/1n at
    31/1406 UTC. Associated with this event was a 270 pfu 10cm burst and
    a 673 km/s Type II sweep. Region 3981 (N05, L=338, class/area
    Dsi/190 on 02 Feb) produced 10 C-class flares and 4 M-class flares,
    the largest an M4.1 at 02/2324 UTC. All other active regions were
    either quiet or contributed C-class events. Potential Earth-directed
    CMEs were observed on 29 and 31 Jan.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    high levels on 02 Feb with a maximum flux of 1,653 pfu at 02/1550
    UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 27-31 Jan and 01
    Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Unsettled
    to active levels were observed on 27-28 Jan due to weak CME effects.
    Mostly quiet levels were observed on 29-31 Jan. Unsettled to active
    levels were observed on 01-02 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS
    effects. Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced on 27-29 Jan
    due to weak CME effects. Greater enhancements were observed on 01-02
    Feb with total field at highs of 18 nT and the Bz component reaching
    -17 nT at times. Wind speeds increased from about 410 km/s to about
    750 km/s late on 01 Feb.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    03 February - 01 March 2025

    Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels
    throughout a majority of the outlook period, all due to numerous,
    significant solar regions expected on the solar disk.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at high levels on 03-04 Feb, 18-19 Feb, 27-28 Feb and
    01 Mar, all due to CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are
    expected on 05-17 Feb and 20-26 Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
    levels on 03-05 Feb due to a combination of positive polarity CH HSS
    and weak CME effects. Unsettled to active levels are expected on
    10-19 Feb due to recurrent negative polarity CH HSS effects.
    Unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels are expected on 27-28 Feb
    and 01 Mar due to positive polarity CH HSS effects.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)