Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 04 - 10 November 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Nov 11 0155 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 November 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels this period. R1
(Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 04-10 Nov, R2 (Moderate)
radio blackouts were observed on 04, 06 and 10 Nov and R3 (Strong)
radio blackouts were observed on 06 Nov. Regions 3883 (S06, L=076,
class/area Fkc/420 on 08 Nov) and 3889 (S10, L=005, class/area
Fko/480 on 10 Nov) produced a majority of the activity this period.

Region 3883 produced an M5.5 flare at 04/1508 UTC. Region 3887 (N16,
L=151, class/area Dsi/140 on 06 Nov) produced an M5.8/Sf flare at
06/0850 UTC. Region 3889 produced an M5.3/1f flare at 06/1438 UTC
and an M9.4/2b flare at 10/1206 UTC. The M9.4 flare had an
associated Type II Sweep with an estimated 928 km/s velocity and a
400 pfu Tenflare. The largest flare of the period was an X2.3/Sf at
06/1340 UTC with an associated Type II Sweep with an estimated 205
km/s velocity. During the period, a total of 52 C-class, 39 M-class
and 1 X-class flares were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was was
at normal to moderate levels on 04-06 Nov and 08-10 Nov and reached
high levels on 07 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm
(R1-Minor) levels. Brief periods of active levels were observed
early on 04 Nov, followed by quiet to unsettled levels through late
on 08 Nov. Active to minor storm levels were observed late on 08 Nov
through 10 Nov, possibly due to weak CME effects, transitioning into
positive polarity CH HSS effects. During the period, wind parameters
were at mostly nominal levels through midday on 07 Nov. On midday 07
Nov, a weak shock was observed were total field increased to 16 nT
and bt dropped to -12 nT. During the summary period, wind speeds
varied from a low of about 350 km/s to a high of about 465 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 November - 07 December 2024

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1/R2 -
Minor/Moderate), with a chance for high levels (R3-Strong) from 11
Nov - 07 Dec. The disk is expected to feature numerous complex
regions throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However,
there is a chance for proton activity following significant solar
flare activity during the outlook period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to be at unsettled to active
periods on 11-16 Nov, 18 Nov, 20 Nov, 26-27 Nov, 30 Nov-03 Dec and
06-07 Dec, all due to influence from recurrent CH HSS effects.
Mostly quiet periods are likely on 17 Nov, 19 Nov, 21-24 Nov, 28-29
Nov and 04-05 Dec.


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