Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 01 - 07 January 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 08 0220 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 January 2024

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Moderate activity
(R1/Minor) was observed from Region 3536 (N06, L=151, class/area
Eko/250 on 03 Jan) on 01, 02 and 04 Jan. The largest of these M
flares was an M4.7 observed at 01/1225 UTC. This region also
produced a total of 35 C-class flares. Region 3538 (N21, L=175,
class/area Dai/070 on 05 Jan) produced a total of 17 C-class flares,
the largest a C7.1/1n at 06/1527 UTC. C-class activity was also
produced by Regions 3534 (S13, L=225, class/area Dao/150 on 30 Dec),
3535 (S05, L=285, class/area Bxo/010 on 28 Dec), 3537 (N18, L=153,
class/area Dsi/120 on 05 Jan) and 3540 (S18, L=095, class/area
Dki/350 on 06 Jan).

Numerous CME signatures were detected during the period, but none
were determined to have an Earth-directed component.

The 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit was above threshold
during this period. The event began at 03/2005 UTC, reached a
maximum of 20 pfu at 04/0835 UTC and ended at 04/2215 UTC. This
event was related to the X-5 event observed from Region 3536 on 31
Dec 2023.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
low to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to isolated active
levels on 01-03 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influence and
weak CME influence the last half of 03 Jan. Mostly quiet levels were
observed on 04-07 Jan. The solar wind field was at slightly enhanced
levels on 01-03 Jan. During this period, total field readings peaked
at 12 nT, the Bz component varied between +/-11 nT and wind speeds
reached maximum speeds of near 500 km/s. From 04-07 Jan, wind
parameters were at mostly background levels. The phi orientation was
in a mostly negative orientation through about 07/1800 UTC when the
field oriented into a mostly positive direction.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 January - 03 February 2024

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class
(R3/Strong) flares from 08-24 Jan, 26-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb. Low
activity is expected on 25 Jan.

A slight chance for proton events exists at geosynchronous orbit
through the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels on 09-12 Jan. Low to
moderate levels are expected on 08 Jan, 13-31 Jan and 01-03 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled periods on
08-09 Jan and 28-30 Jan due to geoeffective CH HSS flow. The
remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)