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  • Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 13 - 19 February 2

    From SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov@3:633/280.2 to All on Tue Feb 21 05:00:09 2023
    Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 13 - 19 February 2023

    :Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    :Issued: 2023 Feb 20 0155 UTC
    # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
    # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
    # https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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    # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
    #
    Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    13 - 19 February 2023

    Solar activity was at low to high levels during the period. M-class
    (R1-Minor) activity was predominate during 13-16 Feb with weak
    M-class flares observed from Regions 3213 (N30, L=223, class/area
    Fki/480 on 12 Feb), 3226 (N11, L=113, class/area Dki/480 on 14 Feb)
    and 3229 (N25, L=035, class/area Dko/400 on 17 Feb). The largest of
    these events was a long duration M2.6 from Region 3213 at 14/1212
    UTC. This region also produced an M1.0 at 15/2114 UTC wth an
    associated Type II radio Sweep (576 km/s) and a projected glancing
    blow CME.

    X flare activity was present on 17 Feb when Region 3229 produced a
    long duration X2.2/2b (R3-Strong) event at 17/2016 UTC. Associated
    with this flare was a fast Type II Sweep (1250 km/s) and an
    associated assumetric, halo CME. 18-19 Feb witnessed C-class
    activity during those two days.

    No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
    high levels on 13-14 Feb with a maximum flux of 5,450 pfu observed
    at 13/1725 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were present on 15-19 Feb.

    Geomagnetic field activity generally ranged from quiet to active
    levels with some isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor). Quiet
    conditions persisted through 13 Feb. quiet to unsettled levels were
    observed on 14 Feb, increasing to unsettled to G1-Minor levels on
    15-16 Feb, all due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled levels were
    present on 17 Feb due to weak positive polarity CH HSS effects.
    Mostly quiet levels persisted on 18-19 Feb.

    Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
    20 February - 18 March 2023

    Solar activity is expected to be at low to M-class flare activity
    (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) levels throughout the outlook period.

    No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. However, a
    chance for a proton event exists throughout the period from the more
    complex, magnetically active regions.

    The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
    expected to be at high levels on 07-13 Mar. Normal to moderate
    levels are expected on 20 Feb-06 Mar and 14-18 Mar.

    Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to minor
    storm levels (G1-Minor). Active to G1-Minor levels are expected on
    20-21 Feb due to CME effects. Unsettled to active conditions are
    expected on 22-24 and 27-28 Feb, 02, 05-08 and 15-17 Mar due to CH
    HSS effects.


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    * Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)