Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 09 - 15 June 2025

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jun 16 0159 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 June 2025

Solar activity was at low levels over 09-12 Jun, moderate levels on
13 Jun, and high levels on 14-15 Jun. In total, five R1 (Minor)
events and two R2 (Moderate) events were observed this period, the
largest of which was an M8.4/1b flare at 15/1807 UTC from Region
4114 (N17, L=34, class/area=Ekc/380 on 15 Jun). Associated with the
M8.4 flare were multi-frequency radio bursts, Castelli U signature,
an 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II (397 km/s) and IV radio sweeps. Region
4105 (S15, L=131, class/area=Eki/310 on 14 Jun) produced an M6.8/1n
flare at 14/2301 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached active levels on 09 Jun in
response to the effects of a CME that left the Sun on 03 Jun, in
addition to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Negative polarity
CH HSS influences persisted over 10-12 Jun, with quiet to unsettled
levels observed on 10 Jun, and periods of active conditions and G1
(Minor) geomagnetic storming observed on 11-12 Jun. Sustained G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm periods were observed on 13 Jun following the
arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 08 Jun. Periods of G1 (Minor)
storming were observed on 14 Jun as CME effects waned and were
followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.
Positive polarity CH HSS influences continued on 15 Jun with quiet
to unsettled levels observed.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 June - 12 July 2025

Solar activity is likely to range from low to high levels throughout
the period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 16-22 Jun. Region
4114 (N17, L=34, class/area=Ekc/380 on 15 Jun) continues a trend of
growth and increasing magnetic complexity, and has the capacity for
additional event-level flaring.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to become enhanced
over 16-18 Jun following the M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC. No other
proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 16-22 Jun and 26 Jun-04 Jul. Normal
to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder
of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 15 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, and
again on 25-26 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Periods of active conditions are likely on 17 Jun due to positive
polarity CH HSS influences, and on 18 Jun due to anticipated passage
of an interplanetary shock as the 15 Jun CME (M8.4 flare at 15/1807
UTC) passes in close proximity to Earth. Active conditions are again
likely on 24 and 27Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Additional active periods are likely on 01-03 and 05-07 Jun in
response to negative polarity CH HSS effects, and over 11-12 Jul due
to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet and quiet to unsettled
levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the
outlook period.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)