Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 17 - 23 February 2025

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Feb 24 0214 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 - 23 February 2025

Solar activity was at low levels on 18-20 and 22 Feb, moderate
levels on 17 and 21 Feb, and reached high levels on 23 Feb. In
total, seven M-class flares (R1-Minor) were observed, ranging from
M1.0 to M4.9, and one X-class (R3-Strong) flare. Contributing
regions were 3992 (S06, L=246, class/area Eai/090 on 17 Feb), 3998
(S14, L=114, class/area Ekc/290 on 23 Feb), 4000 (N17, L=105,
class/area Dai/180 on 22 Feb), and 4001 (N24, L=176, class/area
Dai/050 on 23 Feb). The sole X flare was an X2.0 from Region 4001 at
23/1927 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels on 17-18 Feb due to persistent negative polarity CH
influence, and was at normal to moderate levels on 19-23 Feb.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 18-19
Feb, and saw an isolated active period on 20 Feb, due to persistent
negative polarity CH influence. Conditions were at quiet to
unsettled levels 21-23 Feb as CH effects dissipated.





Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
24 February - 22 March 2025

Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels
throughout the period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) activity is possible
at different points throughout the period as active regions grow,
evolve, return from the far-side of the Sun. There is a slight
chance for R3 or greater events if any of the active regions develop
additional complex magnetic structures.

There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater proton events,
pending the development and activity of the active regions.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 24 Feb-09 Mar and
19-22 Mar. From 10-18 Mar, high levels are likely as recurrent
negative polarity coronal holes are expected to move into
geoeffective positions.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 24 Feb-06 Mar with periodic, weak CH influences. Unsettled
to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storming conditions are
likely from 07-18 Mar as recurrent negative polarity CHs are
expected to be in a geoeffective position. A return to mostly quiet
conditions is expected on 19-22 Mar as the CHs move out of a
favorable position.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)