Subject: Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 10 - 16 June 2024

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jun 17 0202 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 - 16 June 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3697 (S18,
L=350, class/area=Fkc/410 on 03 Jun) produced the strongest flare of
the period, an X1.5/Sf flare (R3 - Strong) at 10/1108 UTC. The
region also produced two R2 (Moderate) and three R1 (Minor) events
before it rotated around the W limb on 10 Jun. Region 3712 (S26,
L=169, class/area=Ekc/1000 on 16 Jun) developed into the most
complex region currently on the visible disk. Only R1 events have
been produced by this region at the time of this report.

Other activity included filament channel eruption centered near
S38E55 which began around 12/1100 UTC. Later that day, an M1.2/1n
flare (R1) was observed from Region 3711 (S08, L=211,
class/area=Dao/060 on 10 Jun) at 12/2246 UTC. Ejecta from these two
events were analyzed. The results suggested potential for CME
influence at Earth with onset over 14-15 Jun.

No proton events above the S1 (Minor) threshold were observed at
geosynchronous orbit. However, an enhancement was observed which
peaked just below S1 levels over 12-13 Jun due to activity on the
Sun's farside late on 11 Jun.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
remained at background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity was elevated to active levels on 10-11
Jun, likely due to CME activity that occurred on the Sun over 08
Jun. Quiet conditions were observed from 12-14 Jun. Geomagnetic
activity increased to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 15 Jun
and active conditions on 16 Jun, likely due to multiple eruptive
events on the Sun over 12 Jun.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 June - 13 July 2024

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels over 17-24 Jun,
primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3712 (S26, L=169, class/area=Ekc/1000 on 16 Jun). A chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)
activity is likely to remain throughout the outlook period due to
the anticipated return of multiple complex regions from the farside
of the Sun.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels. Multiple, recurrent CH HSSs are likely to cause active
conditions on 18 Jun and unsettled conditions over 17 Jun, 19-20
Jun, 22-23 Jun, and 30 Jun - 01 Jul. The remainder of the outlook
period is likely to be mostly quiet.


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* Origin: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (3:633/280.2@fidonet)