Trump has indicated that, in his view, Ukraine should cede territory to Russia "for the sake of peace". This position stands in direct opposition to previous U.S. policy and is also completely at odds with the European stance.

It was, in fact, the United States that provided Ukraine with security guarantees in the 1990s. Trump is now making it very clear what those guarantees are worth today.

Ukraine has no intention of permanently ceding territory; doing so would, after all, reward Russia for its aggression. Ukraine does, however, seek a ceasefire, a step that would allow for negotiations, from a position of peace, regarding the return of occupied Ukrainian land.

A notable detail: from a military perspective, the situation at the front is currently improving for Ukraine. There is a possibility that Russia may soon be forced to relinquish more occupied territory, as its front lines struggle increasingly to withstand persistent Ukrainian drone attacks.

The method by which Trump intends to pressure Zelensky involves bringing Putin, Trump, and Zelensky to the same negotiating table, where Trump and Putin could then exert joint pressure on Zelensky.

In Trump’s fantasy world, this would undoubtedly work.

In reality, I expect little to come of it. Unlike Trump and Putin, Zelensky knows exactly what he wants and where his red lines lie. Furthermore, he knows better than anyone that the words and promises of both men are worth very little.

Zelensky is also aware that his military position is far from weak. The war is certainly not unfolding according to Russian plans; in fact, just last week, there was a single day in which Russia reportedly lost nearly 3,000 soldiers. At present, Russia has no realistic prospect of completely overrunning Ukraine militarily. In fact, Ukraine is steadily increasing the pressure on Russia, not only at the front, but also deep within the Russian economy.

The consequences of this are becoming increasingly apparent. The internet in Russia is growing unstable, mail and parcels are failing to arrive, and even oil products are becoming increasingly scarce in Russia, a country that is, incidentally, one of the world’s largest oil producers.

Trump may attempt to force Zelenskyy to make concessions at the negotiating table, but doing so would not change the underlying military and economic reality. And that reality is, for Russia, anything but bright.

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